Indonesia’s Central Government Tax Revenue Dynamics Before and Since 2022: Growth, Composition, and the Tax-to-GDP Ratio

Abstract

This study examined whether the growth in Indonesia's central government tax revenue since 2022 was accompanied by sustained improvements relative to nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and whether revenue increases were broadly distributed across tax categories. A quantitative descriptive-comparative approach was employed using official annual tax revenue and current-price GDP data for 2010–2025. The analysis compared three periods: the pre-pandemic baseline (2010–2019), the pandemic and initial recovery period (2020–2021), and the post-2021 period (2022–2025). The analytical indicators included annual revenue growth, tax-to-GDP ratios, tax category shares, descriptive tax buoyancy, and additive contributions to revenue growth. Endpoint and alternative-coverage sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the findings. Tax revenue increased by 31.44% in 2022, exceeding nominal GDP growth of 15.38%, with income tax contributing 19.48 percentage points to overall revenue growth. The tax-to-GDP ratio recovered from 8.32% in 2020 to 10.39% in 2022 but subsequently declined to 10.02% in 2025. The average ratio for 2022–2025 was 10.29%, remaining below the 2010–2019 average of 10.62%. Between 2022 and 2025, tax revenue increased by 17.34%, while nominal GDP expanded by 21.61%. In 2025, income tax and excise revenues declined despite an increase in aggregate tax revenue. The reported Other Taxes category contributed 4.06 percentage points to overall revenue growth of 3.35%, whereas excluding this category resulted in an alternative-coverage growth rate of ?0.71%. These descriptive findings did not establish causal relationships between specific tax reforms and revenue performance. Instead, they highlighted the importance of reconciling tax component classifications and evaluating fiscal performance through aggregate revenue growth, revenue composition, and tax collection relative to GDP.